The University of Nottingham

Matthew Goodwin is an associate professor in the School of Politics and International Relations — an expert in British and European politics, Euroscepticism, radical and extreme movements and public attitudes toward immigration and minority groups. Here he shares his thoughts on Ukip victories following the European elections in May. The article was first published on the Guardian website.

Nigel Farage promised an electoral earthquake, and he has delivered one. In only a few years he has led a party of amateurs out of the wilderness to win a national election and support from more than four million voters.

To find an election where a party other than the Conservatives and Labour received the highest share of the national vote, you would need to go back to 1906. Many will scoff at the comparison to a first-past-the-post general election, but make no mistake: Ukip is overhauling the old law in British politics that angry insurgents can never prosper.

The most striking aspect of this new force is how deeply it is misunderstood. The old wisdom was that Ukip is akin to the mythical town of Brigadoon. Never a constant force, it would emerge from the mist once every five years, generating excitement at a proportional election but then quickly fading from view as attention returned to Westminster. This was joined by the assertion that Ukip was nothing more than a pressure valve for Conservative Eurosceptics.

Both of these wisdoms have now been demolished. Those who continue to argue that Ukip is little more than a flash in the pan underestimate the depths of anger among financially struggling, blue-collar and left-behind voters who are its core electorate. These voters have long felt intensely anxious over an array of perceived threats to their identity, values and way of life; from migrants and unelected Eurocrats in Brussels, to distant elites in Westminster. Never before have these working-class voters felt so disconnected from our politics, and so ready for a radical alternative. Ignored for years by a cosmopolitan, educated and progressive elite, they took a collective decision in the face of ridicule and condescension to turn out in force. They have now rejected Britain’s entire political class.

Farage recognised the trend and started a conversation with those who felt left behind, merging in their minds the issues of Europe and immigration. Crucially, he recognised that their anxieties are as much rooted in identity as economics. Now he has been rewarded with striking results in areas where Ukip have a fighting chance in 2015; last night the party averaged 51 per cent in Boston, 48 per cent in Castle Point, 45 per cent in Great Yarmouth and 46 per cent in Thurrock. And they won Newark — home of a parliamentary byelection in less than two weeks.

Many will spend the coming days dismissing the rebellion as a temporary protest that will soon evaporate. But they ignore mounting evidence that Farage is on the verge of building a far more resilient coalition that is anchored in both disillusioned, blue-collar Tories and disadvantaged voters who should otherwise be supplying Labour with a commanding lead. Those who claim that Ukip’s appeal to the latter is overrated should look at areas such as Darlington, Kingston-upon-Hull, Hartlepool, Middlesbrough, Rotherham, Stockton-on-Tees, Wakefield and parts of Wales. They are all Labour areas where last night a radical right insurgent finished first.

Further evidence of Ukip’s growing impact across the spectrum can also be found in the local elections where the party averaged 20 per cent in Conservative-held wards and 25 per cent in Labour-held wards. Detailed analysis of these results concluded that Ukip is increasingly drilling into red territory. “The net effect,” noted Steve Fisher from the University of Oxford, “is that Ukip’s rise from 2010 to 2014 has been at similar expense to Labour and the Conservatives.”

The scale of its impact confirms that, while Ukip will inflict real damage in Conservative marginals, in some areas it is entrenching itself as the opposition to Labour and has a realistic chance of winning Labour seats such as Great Grimsby. Farage promptly declared the seat a top target.

The narrative that will now emerge in the Westminster village is that Farage’s voters will abandon him as the general election nears. Inevitably some will leave, but the extent of this drift is being exaggerated. Research undertaken by Lord Ashcroft suggests that one in two Ukip voters will stay loyal in 2015. Other data in the British Election Study indicates that 64 per cent of Ukip’s European election voters will remain with Farage at least until next year. This evidence points to a clear conclusion: a sudden collapse in Ukip support of the kind seen in 2005 and 2010 is distinctly unlikely. This really is uncharted territory.

In the aftermath of the European parliament elections 10 years ago, Ukip’s 16 per cent of the national vote was dismissed as “hot air”. Since then Ukip’s revolt has gathered such pace that it is has now won over more than one in four voters.

Yet still our national debate has failed to engage seriously with the roots of Ukip’s appeal, and the underlying divisions that have made its rise possible. Instead, many have sought to ridicule, condemn and chase the party out of our politics. That approach has failed miserably. Now it is time for a serious debate about the roots of this growing revolt.