The recent Oldham by-election helped the UK Independence Party (UKIP) confirm its status as the fourth largest party in British politics, ahead of the British National Party (BNP).

With local elections looming, experts are now warning that UKIP looks set to become a successful radical right party and a “significant vehicle” for Islamophobia.

“Our research shows that Euroscepticism is not the whole story where UKIP is concerned,” say two of its authors — Dr Robert Ford and Dr Matthew Goodwin — experts on voting behaviour at the Universities of Manchester and Nottingham.

“There’s no doubt the party’s position on Europe is a big factor, but their supporters are increasingly concerned with attitudes more typically associated with the BNP. Like far-right voters, those who vote UKIP are dissatisfied with the mainstream parties and hostile toward immigration.”

The research is the first to analyse and understand the attitudes and motives of UKIP supporters. At the last General Election, UKIP called for an immediate halt on immigration, the ending of multicultural policies and a partial ban on the niqab and burka. Leader Nigel Farage has since given a “cautious welcome” to the wishes of the French National Front (one of the most successful radical right parties in Europe) to model itself on UKIP.

“Our analysis shows while UKIP does mop up ‘defectors’ from the Tories — upper and middle-class voters who largely follow UKIP to lodge their feelings on Europe at European Parliament elections — its appeal in domestic elections is rather different”, says Dr Ford.

“In domestic elections like Oldham East, UKIP tends to do best amongst disaffected working-class voters, who find UKIP’s populist attacks on immigrants, Muslims and the political establishment attractive. UKIP appeals to the same kind of voters as the BNP, but may be able to recruit a broader and more sustainable vote base, with UKIP voters outnumbering BNP voters three to one.

“While many voters agree with the BNP’s political messages, they are turned off by its violent and fascist reputation. UKIP suffers no such legitimacy problems.”

The research also shows that UKIP has succeeded in securing the votes of women, who have traditionally rejected the BNP due to its perceived extremism.

“Until now, getting to grips with UKIP has been extremely difficult due to an absence of any real systematic research,” adds Dr Goodwin. “This is why the party remains something of a puzzle to many.”

The paper — Strategic Eurosceptics and Polite Xenophobes: support for the UK Independence Party in the 2009 European Parliament Elections (also authored by Dr David Cutts at the University of Manchester) — looks at data gathered from the YouGov online panel in the week before the European Parliament election. The researchers compared the views of more than 4,306 UKIP voters in 34,000 randomly interviewed in the 2001 census, building on their previous pioneering studies of BNP voters.

“Our research backs up assertions that UKIP, unlike the BNP, are thought of as a legitimate force in British politics, with access to mainstream media and political elites,” says Dr Goodwin. “Voters who shun the BNP are willing to listen to the same messages when they come from UKIP. UKIP may, therefore, function as a “polite alternative” for voters worried about immigration and Islam, but repelled by the BNP’s public image.”